Weekly Trading Signals - Week of 2026-10-05
Published: 2026-10-03 Target: Monday 2026-10-05 open Horizon: 1-3 day trades
Week in review (to Friday 2 Oct close): September nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000 versus about 90,000 expected, unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, and August was revised down. Traders cut the odds of an October Fed hike from roughly 64-70% to about 20% after the print and after New York Fed President John Williams said there was no need for urgency. The S&P 500 closed at 7,722.72 (+0.73% Friday, -0.27% on the week), the Nasdaq at 27,190.86 (+1.19% Friday, +0.45% on the week), and the Dow at 51,176.96 (+0.49% Friday, -1.26% on the week). The 10-year Treasury yield stayed elevated near 5.18-5.28%. Brent settled near $102.73 and WTI near $91-93 after a G7 plan to release about 100 million barrels of emergency crude and diesel, while Hormuz and Iran headlines kept a supply premium in the tape. The dollar eased on Friday (EURUSD near 1.126, USDJPY near 157.8). Bitcoin traded roughly $84,500-$87,000. VIX finished near 15.3.
Rules used: BUY only if price is above the 5-day SMA with a volume spike and bullish sentiment. SELL if price is below the 5-day SMA with fading volume or negative sentiment. HOLD otherwise. Entries are Monday-open estimates around Friday settlement, not live quotes.
Stocks
| Symbol | Signal (BUY/SELL/HOLD) | Entry (Monday open estimate) | Take Profit | Stop-Loss | Short Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | BUY | 198.50 | 206.00 | 193.40 | New high with Nasdaq record attempt; AI bid and volume follow-through after soft jobs cut hike odds. Above 5-day SMA. |
| TSLA | BUY | 412.00 | 428.00 | 400.50 | Friday surge above 5% on stronger deliveries; volume spike and price back above the 5-day SMA. |
| QQQ | BUY | 598.00 | 608.50 | 590.00 | Nasdaq +1.19% Friday and +0.45% on the week; growth led as October hike odds fell. |
| MSTR | BUY | 228.00 | 242.00 | 218.50 | Crypto proxy bounced with Bitcoin above $87k intraday; Citi lifted target. Volume up, price above short average. |
| XLRE | BUY | 42.80 | 43.70 | 42.10 | Rate-sensitive real estate bounced as hike odds dropped; still a tactical 1-3 day long, not a duration bet. |
| NKE | SELL | 72.40 | 69.20 | 74.60 | Dropped after a China demand warning. Price under the 5-day SMA with negative sentiment. |
| WDC | SELL | 86.50 | 82.00 | 89.40 | Storage names sold off after a report Toshiba may double hard-disk capacity. Below short average. |
| DIA | HOLD | 511.80 | 518.00 | 505.50 | Dow -1.26% on the week despite Friday bounce. Not cleanly above the 5-day SMA. |
| JPM | HOLD | 268.00 | 274.00 | 262.50 | Financials mixed: lower hike odds help multiples, but 10-year still near 5.2% and weekly tape was soft. |
| AAPL | HOLD | 248.00 | 253.50 | 243.00 | Participated in the Nasdaq bounce but no fresh volume spike or company catalyst this week. |
Forex
| Symbol | Signal (BUY/SELL/HOLD) | Entry (Monday open estimate) | Take Profit | Stop-Loss | Short Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | SELL | 1.1260 | 1.1175 | 1.1315 | Still in a falling channel near May 2025 lows on France budget stress. Friday dollar dip is a bounce, not a 5-day reclaim. |
| GBPUSD | SELL | 1.3220 | 1.3120 | 1.3290 | Sliding toward late-June lows as UK yields stay high. Price under the 5-day SMA; 1.3274 caps rebounds. |
| USDJPY | HOLD | 157.80 | 159.20 | 156.40 | Dollar eased to 157.79 after jobs, but the pair remains in a buy regime on the week. No clean break of the 5-day. |
| AUDUSD | HOLD | 0.6950 | 0.7020 | 0.6890 | Little changed near 0.695. Risk bounce from softer Fed odds offset by still-firm USD. |
| USDCAD | BUY | 1.4245 | 1.4340 | 1.4180 | Strongest major into Friday. Above the 5-day SMA with oil reserve-release pressure on CAD. |
| USDCHF | SELL | 0.8285 | 0.8200 | 0.8355 | Dollar slipped versus CHF as hike odds fell. Below the short average after about a 1% daily drop in some fixes. |
| NZDUSD | SELL | 0.5612 | 0.5540 | 0.5655 | Oversold but still under every major moving average. No volume-backed reclaim. |
Commodities
| Symbol | Signal (BUY/SELL/HOLD) | Entry (Monday open estimate) | Take Profit | Stop-Loss | Short Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GC | BUY | 4165 | 4240 | 4110 | Gold firmed as October hike odds collapsed and real-rate pressure eased. Above the 5-day SMA with defensive bid. |
| SI | HOLD | 61.40 | 63.20 | 59.60 | Tracks gold but still capped under nearby resistance near 62.30. No clean volume spike. |
| CL | SELL | 91.50 | 87.80 | 94.20 | WTI faded on the week toward the high $80s to low $90s after the G7 reserve release plan. Below a rising but flattening 5-day. |
| BZ | HOLD | 102.70 | 106.00 | 99.50 | Brent near $102.73. Reserve release fights Hormuz risk. No directional edge for 1-3 days. |
| NG | BUY | 3.05 | 3.22 | 2.94 | Natural gas near $3.04 with a positive daily bias and price above the 5-day SMA. Shoulder-season volume is supportive, not explosive. |
| HG | HOLD | 4.62 | 4.74 | 4.52 | Copper lacked a clear volume impulse. China demand worries (Nike, exporters) offset the risk-on Friday. |
Crypto
| Symbol | Signal (BUY/SELL/HOLD) | Entry (Monday open estimate) | Take Profit | Stop-Loss | Short Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | BUY | 85500 | 88500 | 83200 | Reclaimed the mid-$80ks and tagged above $87k with equity risk-on after the jobs miss. Above the 5-day SMA, volume improved. |
| ETH | BUY | 3280 | 3420 | 3170 | High-beta follow-through to Bitcoin and the Nasdaq bounce. Price above the 5-day SMA. |
| SOL | HOLD | 178.00 | 186.00 | 171.00 | Liquid top-20 name but no standalone volume spike beyond the broad crypto bounce. |
| XRP | HOLD | 0.62 | 0.66 | 0.59 | Range-bound. Sentiment improved with BTC but not enough to clear the 5-day with conviction. |
| DOGE | HOLD | 0.142 | 0.151 | 0.134 | Volume elevated but price still oscillating around the 5-day SMA. No clean signal. |
Portfolio Allocation Suggestion
40% Stocks / 25% Crypto / 20% Commodities / 15% Forex
Tilt the stock sleeve to Nasdaq growth (NVDA, TSLA, QQQ) and a small rate-sensitive long (XLRE), funded by shorts in NKE and storage. In FX, stay short EUR and GBP versus a long USDCAD. In commodities, long gold and gas against a tactical crude short. Crypto sleeve is BTC and ETH only.
Overall Risk Score: Medium
Soft labor data supports a 1-3 day risk bounce, but the 10-year near 5.2%, Hormuz headlines, and a still-live December hike path keep gap risk high into Monday.
Estimated Max Profit Potential: 3.5%
If the BUY basket (NVDA, TSLA, QQQ, BTC, ETH, GC) holds above Monday open and the SELL basket (NKE, WDC, EURUSD, GBPUSD, CL) follows through, blended 1-3 day upside is about 3.5% before costs. A reversal back toward a 60%+ October hike probability would cut that toward flat.
Sources: Reuters equities close, 2 Oct 2026, AP index recap, Reuters Fed skip odds, NYT jobs and Fed, Nikkei Asia dollar and yields, MFS week in review.
Not investment advice. Levels are estimates for the Monday 5 Oct 2026 open based on Friday settlement and last-week ranges.