Trading Post

Weekly Trading Signals - Week of 2026-09-14

Published: 2026-09-12 Target: Monday 14 September 2026 open Horizon: 1-3 day trades

Macro last 7 days: August CPI printed sticky (headline 3.4% YoY; MoM rebound after a soft July), and PPI was hot earlier in the week. Markets now price a high chance of a 25 bp Fed hike at the 16 Sep FOMC. Middle East shipping attacks lifted crude ~9% on the week even after a ~3% Friday fade (Brent still above $104). S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,656.98 (+0.86% Fri, -0.8% week). Nasdaq 26,333.04 (+0.96% Fri, -0.7% week). Dow 52,573.29 (+0.98% Fri, -1.6% week). Gold recovered Friday near $4,400 after a weekly dip. BTC faded toward $77k. DXY held near 99. BoE and BoJ also meet this coming week.

Stocks

Symbol Signal (BUY/SELL/HOLD) Entry (Monday open estimate) Take Profit Stop-Loss Short Reasoning
DELL BUY 565 605 540 +11-12% Friday to a record on AI-server demand and Oracle capex read-through; price above 5-day SMA with volume spike.
HPE BUY 62 68 58 +12% Friday hardware surge with HP; momentum and volume clear the short SMA.
HPQ BUY last close +8% Friday +6% -3% Follow-through on Oracle/AI hardware bid; high-volume mover.
ORCL HOLD last close - - Beat and raised guide lifted the complex, but the stock itself faded after the open; wait for 5-day reclaim.
ANET BUY last close +5% -2.5% Citi TMT demand commentary; Friday bid above short SMA.
SMCI BUY 40 44 37.5 +7% Friday with AI hardware tape; volume and price above 5-day.
SMR SELL 8.70 7.40 9.40 -15% Friday breakdown; price well below 5-day SMA with negative sentiment.
XOM HOLD last close - - Energy still supported by $100+ crude, but Friday oil drop and Fed hike week argue against chasing.
NVDA HOLD last close - - AI complex mixed into a hawkish FOMC; no clean volume-plus-SMA setup after a down week.
ACVA HOLD last close after +44% deal pop - - Copart bid spike is event-driven; fade risk into Monday open.

Forex

Symbol Signal (BUY/SELL/HOLD) Entry (Monday open estimate) Take Profit Stop-Loss Short Reasoning
EURUSD SELL 1.1590 1.1520 1.1645 Soft close near 1.1590 with Fed hike week; pair below short SMA and USD supported by sticky CPI.
GBPUSD HOLD 1.3525 - - Flat into UK jobs/CPI and BoE; no clean SMA-plus-volume edge vs the Fed.
USDJPY SELL 153.70 152.20 155.00 Yen was the G10 winner as USDJPY failed 160 and sits near 153.70 into a hawkish-leaning BoJ.
AUDUSD HOLD 0.7190 - - Commodity FX mixed vs a still-firm USD and oil volatility; no volume spike.
USDCAD HOLD 1.3810 - - Oil-linked CAD support offsets Fed-hike USD bid; range-bound.
USDCHF BUY 0.8120 0.8185 0.8065 USD strongest vs CHF on the latest tape; hike odds favor the dollar.
NZDUSD HOLD 0.5825 - - Soft vs USD with risk mixed into FOMC; no clean 5-day break.

Commodities

Symbol Signal (BUY/SELL/HOLD) Entry (Monday open estimate) Take Profit Stop-Loss Short Reasoning
GC (Gold) HOLD 4405 - - Friday bounce off CPI but still down on the week vs high real yields; mixed vs 5-day SMA.
SI (Silver) HOLD 64.50 - - Tracks gold; weekly decline then Friday rebound, no volume confirmation.
CL (WTI) BUY 99.50 106.00 94.50 ~9% weekly gain on Hormuz/Red Sea supply risk; Friday fade is a dip into still-bullish 5-day structure.
CO (Brent) BUY 104.60 111.00 99.50 Settled $104.61 after a $110 spike; geopolitics keep the premium above short SMAs.
NG (Nat Gas) SELL 2.81 2.65 2.95 Lagged crude and printed a down session near $2.81; below short SMA with no spike.
HG (Copper) HOLD last close - - Slight weekly loss; industrial demand vs hawkish Fed is a wash.

Crypto

Symbol Signal (BUY/SELL/HOLD) Entry (Monday open estimate) Take Profit Stop-Loss Short Reasoning
BTC SELL 77000 72000 80500 Failed the 50-week SMA near $79.7k, week down ~3-4%, yields and oil capped risk appetite.
ETH BUY 2580 2780 2420 Relative strength vs BTC; Friday rebound and weekly gain with volume.
SOL HOLD 102 - - Participated in Friday bounce near $102 but weekly tape is mixed below prior highs.
XRP HOLD 1.34 - - Lagged majors on the week; ETF flow is a longer theme, not a 1-3 day SMA setup.
BNB HOLD 713 - - Soft with the complex; no volume spike above the 5-day.
DOGE SELL 0.083 0.076 0.089 High-beta lag with declining tape vs BTC; below short SMA.

Portfolio Allocation Suggestion

35% Commodities (crude overweight on geopolitics) / 25% Stocks (AI hardware leaders, fade broken names) / 20% Forex (short EURUSD and USDJPY, long USDCHF) / 20% Crypto (ETH over BTC)

Overall Risk Score: High

Estimated Max Profit Potential: 5%

Risk is elevated into a central-bank triple-header (Fed, BoE, BoJ), sticky inflation, and Middle East energy supply shocks. Size down. Prefer defined stops on DELL/HPE and crude; do not fade oil solely on Friday's 3% drop while shipping risk remains live.

Sources

  • Reuters, S&P 500 ends higher as strong inflation data cements rate-hike bets (11 Sep 2026)
  • AP News, How major US stock indexes fared Friday 9/11/2026
  • Motley Fool / Barron's, stock market 11 Sep 2026 (Dell, HPE, Oracle, oil)
  • FXStreet, Forecasting the upcoming week: Fed, BoE and BoJ (11 Sep 2026)
  • MUFG FX Weekly, 11 Sep 2026
  • CoinDesk / FXStreet Bitcoin weekly, 11 Sep 2026
  • Bullion Exchanges weekly metals and crypto report, 11 Sep 2026
  • XTB daily summary, 11 Sep 2026